Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 6.312814e-05 0.000076 0.000089 0.000105 0.000122 0.000141 0.000163
2025-03-09 4.570287e-05 0.000062 0.000080 0.000103 0.000130 0.000160 0.000197
2025-03-16 3.720766e-05 0.000054 0.000076 0.000103 0.000136 0.000175 0.000224
2025-03-23 3.071113e-05 0.000049 0.000072 0.000104 0.000143 0.000191 0.000252
2025-03-30 2.538454e-05 0.000044 0.000068 0.000103 0.000148 0.000203 0.000274
2025-04-06 2.045222e-05 0.000038 0.000064 0.000100 0.000149 0.000211 0.000293
2025-04-13 1.805517e-05 0.000036 0.000063 0.000103 0.000157 0.000227 0.000321
2025-04-20 1.429731e-05 0.000031 0.000058 0.000099 0.000156 0.000231 0.000334
2025-04-27 1.199750e-05 0.000029 0.000056 0.000098 0.000160 0.000241 0.000354
2025-05-04 1.009674e-05 0.000026 0.000053 0.000098 0.000163 0.000251 0.000373
2025-05-11 9.172146e-06 0.000025 0.000054 0.000101 0.000171 0.000268 0.000403
2025-05-18 7.847917e-06 0.000024 0.000052 0.000101 0.000176 0.000278 0.000424
2025-05-25 5.930677e-06 0.000020 0.000048 0.000097 0.000174 0.000282 0.000437
2025-06-01 4.679436e-06 0.000018 0.000046 0.000096 0.000176 0.000291 0.000458
2025-06-08 3.775360e-06 0.000016 0.000044 0.000096 0.000180 0.000301 0.000480
2025-06-15 3.139898e-06 0.000015 0.000043 0.000097 0.000185 0.000315 0.000507
2025-06-22 2.453895e-06 0.000014 0.000041 0.000096 0.000187 0.000324 0.000527
2025-06-29 1.806363e-06 0.000012 0.000038 0.000093 0.000187 0.000329 0.000543
2025-07-06 1.553504e-06 0.000012 0.000039 0.000096 0.000195 0.000346 0.000574
2025-07-13 1.049931e-06 0.000010 0.000036 0.000092 0.000192 0.000347 0.000584
2025-07-20 7.825357e-07 0.000009 0.000034 0.000091 0.000195 0.000356 0.000605
2025-07-27 5.771328e-07 0.000008 0.000033 0.000091 0.000198 0.000365 0.000627
2025-08-03 5.005926e-07 0.000008 0.000034 0.000094 0.000207 0.000384 0.000662